Back in Iraq

Now that the U.S. Navy is carrying out airstrikes against ISIS military targets in Iraq (Fox News) they have yet another matter to worry about.

The White House is reportedly "Extremely concerned" about ISIS taking over the Mosul Dam in Northern Iraq.  The dam, a huge structure which isn't in good shape anyway, if breached could unleash a wall of water 65 feet high into one of the country's largest cities...and send flood waters all the way to the capitol.

It looks like American fighter-bombers may have a new target.

If the highly regarded Kurdish peshmerga troops can't hold the dam, or have already lost it, they may need more help.  Navy jets are a great asset to have at your disposal, but without US boots on the ground their effectiveness will be reduced.  Laser bombs work best when there's someone on the ground lasing the targets.

According to ABC News: After a day of conflicting reports about the status of the dam, which was guarded by well-respected Kurdish peshmerga troops, a State Department spokesperson told ABC News late Thursday night that the dam had indeed fallen into the hands of the extremist group the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS. The group is still believed to be in control as of this report."

All these new developments in Iraq, taken in conjuncture with increased stress from Russia along the Ukrainian border, and renewed fighting after a cease fire ends in Gaza, shows the world is a more dangerous place to be right now than it has in a very long time.  And lets not forget that U.S. ground troops are still fighting and dying in Afghanistan.  One more spark and the whole world may be at war.  My bet is on Putin.  If Russia moves in to save threatened Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine that may be the straw that brakes the camel's back.

The U.S. "Isolationists" administration may have no choice but to unleash its military to restore order and prevent any further mass killings on a scale not scene since WWII.   Then again, it might not.  Nero did fiddle while Rome burned, maybe President Obama will play golf while the world goes up in flames.

Isolationism and pacifism have their risks as well.  Anyone remember what happened in Munich before World War II?  The British and French caved to everything the Nazi's wanted to avert war.  It didn't work.  And I don't think its going to work this time either.

What's Putin up to Now?

Russian bombers reportedly penetrate U.S. Airspace sixteen times in the last ten days?  This comes after Putin announces a a food ban on imports from EU countries and the United States.  The new Russian Emporer is on a roll.

This from the Washington Times:   "Russian strategic nuclear bombers conducted at least 16 incursions into northwestern U.S. air defense identification zones over the past 10 days, an unusually sharp increase in aerial penetrations, according to U.S. defense officials. The numerous flight encounters by Tu-95 Russian Bear H bombers prompted the scrambling of U.S. jet fighters on several occasions, and come amid heightened U.S.-Russia tensions over Ukraine. Also, during one bomber incursion near Alaska, a Russian intelligence-gathering jet was detected along with the bombers."

Self Loving Russian Soldier

He sure is in love with his own pictures.  But a Russian army sergeant may have tipped Moscow's hand, by posting selfies from inside Ukraine.  And he's no tourist. 

Alexander Sotkin, 24, has been posting pictures of himself in various combat settings, such as an armored personnel carrier and military camps. And the photo from Sorkin's Instagram page shows he has taken photos in Moscow, and inside the Russian border town of Voloshino.

But what's worse - within his Instagram shots, Sotkin appears to have activated a locator map that showed how several images were shot and uploaded inside Eastern Ukraine earlier this month.

Oops.

Of course, Moscow denies any of its soldiers are inside the border of Eastern Ukraine, despite accusations from the United States, the E.U. and NATO. 

Sotkin and his friends may need a lesson in the pitfalls of social media.

Cold War II

It's officially on.

Both Time and Newsweek came out with covers this week that clearly point to the largest crisis the world has seen since the end of the First Cold War.

Time cover story:  http://time.com/3028057/in-russia-crime-without-punishment/

Newsweek cover story:  http://www.newsweek.com/2014/08/01/behind-scenes-putins-court-private-habits-latter-day-dictator-260640.html


There are hot spots in many places these days.  ISIS is taking over Iraq, and it represents the biggest terrorist threat to the United States since the rise of al Qaeda. The Taliban are poised to rule Afghanistan  again once we pull out.  The U.S. State Department bugged out of Libya because of all the militia infighting there.  The rest of North Africa (Including Egypt) is a mess of political and militia chaos.  Thousands are killed every week in Syria - Obama's red line on chemical weapons officially erased.  And of course the fighting in Gaza goes on unabated, and threatens to become a larger regional war any day now.

All are examples of what happens when the United States runs away.  Call it "disengagement" or "isolationism" or being "war weary."  All show the U.S. is clearly repeating mistakes of the past.

One only has to study the consequences of America's withdrawal from the world stage after World War I. In 1917, a "war weary" nation withdrew to the imagined safety of its own continent.  Problems in Europe, Africa and Asia didn't worry us.  The roaring '20's and the first age of access on Wall Street fueled an economy that was on a runaway path to prosperity for all...until that bubble bust in 1939. 

In the meantime, the world simmered.  Germany staggered under the penalties imposed at Versailles.  Japan reached out for natural resources it needed to fuel a growing empire.  And a new version of militant fascism first reared its ugly head in Italy.

When a discredited Winston Churchill attempted to warn the world of impending doom, no one listened.  While the United States reveled in its bubble of riches and isolationism, nobody cared.  While France boasted the world's largest army and a line of impenetrable forts (The Maginot line), no one worried.

And no one seems to worry, or care about what is happening today, especially when it comes to examining the biggest threat the world faces - the one coming from Moscow.   Even after Russia is clearly linked to the downing of a civilian jetliner, and western intelligence agencies do everything they can to publicly display Moscow's role in Ukraine's pro-Russian uprising, it seems no one wants to take the steps necessary to slow down Vladimir Putin's march - not even the economic steps that would have the most impact.

The European Union's reaction to what Moscow has done in Georgia and Ukraine is nothing more than absolute ignorant dismissal.  It borders on suicide.  No one wants to see NATO troops enter Western Ukraine.  Ukraine is not a NATO member, and such a step would probably jump start World War III.  But the European Union must to something substantial to punish Moscow - or it borders on the kind of appeasement that encouraged Hitler to occupy even more of Europe.  Even if it wanted to, NATO no longer has the firepower or the willpower to put its foot down against a militant recharged Russia.  Vladimir Putin knows he can march anywhere his heart desires.  A de-fanged  NATO and a "war weary" United States will do nothing about it.

You have to look no further that what is happening in Gaza right now to determine how far the United States has fallen in credibility and influence.  Nothing we say is even slowing down Israel's march to stomp out all militarized descent in Gaza, and it doesn't matter how many civilians get hurt along the way.    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/un-calls-for-immediate-cease-fire-in-gaza-as-lull-in-fighting-prevails/2014/07/28/01dea116-9195-424b-85b1-da93899d8250_story.html

And it's as if HAMAS knows it has no choice but to fight back.   http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/28/us-mideast-gaza-idUSKBN0FV04A20140728

The United States/White House excuse that the country is "war weary" will only lead to more tragedy as the enemies aligned against it (Russia, China, Islamic terrorists) become ever more embolden by our strategy of disengagement.These periods of withdrawal always end tragically.  One most only remember Pearl Harbor and 9/11.

Another wake up call is coming, and sometime in the next 10-20 years we will be in another shooting war.  And if our enemies are allowed to build to a Nazi like crescendo, it will most likely be the start of World War III.

Image the U.S. fighting China in the Pacific, Russia in Europe, and Islamic terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa - all at the same time.  Not a pretty picture, and one we are likely to lose. 

It's just human nature.  Allow a bully to go on bullying long enough, and eventually he's going to take a swing at your nose.  Especially if he senses weakness.

The United States is oozing weakness right now.  And the bullies are lining up to take a swing.

Suria Crisis

The crisis over a planned U.S. attack on Syria for its use of chemical weapons is really ratcheting up.  Check out these links:  I give the whole thing a Sphincter Factor of about 9.9

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323893004579057271019210230.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStorie

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/504187/20130906/iran-supreme-leader-obama-syria-tehran-assad.htm

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/09/05/obama-to-engage-putin-on-syria-strike-at-g-20-summit/

http://www.breitbart.com/system/wire/DA8KT3I00

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/06/world/middleeast/pentagon-is-ordered-to-expand-potential-targets-in-syria-with-a-focus-on-forces.html?_r=0

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-US-strike-on-Syria-to-be-significantly-larger-than-expected-325389

Miss the Cold War?

Let's take stock of what's happening in the world right now.  Syria is a disaster, and rapidly turning into a proxy war between the West and Iran/Russia/Hezbollah.  The U.S. is establishing a military presence in Jordan to train Syrian rebels, and leaving a squadron of F-16s there to establish a partial no-fly zone. 

Meantime, Russian President Putin takes every opportunity to tweak the U.S.  Besides supplying Syria with missiles, he's keeping a stolen Super Bowl ring, and won't release NSA leaker Edward Snowden to U.S. authorities. 

The Chinese are pissed too, because the White House went after Snowden in Hong Kong. 

And let's not forget Iran, all this stalling on nuclear talks has given them more than enough time to build a bomb or two, and Pakistan (already nuclear armed) is about to fall into the abyss of anarchy.

And what does President Obama want to do - he talks to Putin about nuclear disarmament.  Mutual Assured Distruction (Or MAD as its called) has been the only thing to keep the peace for the last 60 years or so - can you imagine how many times we would have fought the Russians or Chinese if the bomb wasn't around?  Nuclear weapons are the only thing keeping the U.S. and Russia from going to war right now.  So what if Iran or some other tin-horn republics get the bomb, we have enough to flatten them all so using them against us would be suicide.

My advice, don't eliminate nuclear weapons unless you want another world war.  I would rather the Cold War return.

Heating Up

I give this whole Middle-East thing a 9.8 on my sphincter scale - U.S. keeping planes, missiles and troops in Jordan to establish a Syrian rebel training base - the Russians sending more missiles to aid Syria - and more troops from Hezbollah and Iran joining the fight?  Somebody better put the brakes on, and fast.

Assad Warns Against Arming Rebels, Denies Chemical Weapons Use

By Patrick Donahue on June 17, 2013

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-17/assad-warns-against-arming-rebels-denies-chemical-weapons-use

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warned that Europe will “pay the price” for arming rebels trying to topple him and rejected accusations that he’s deployed chemical weapons against them as baseless.

In an interview with Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper in Damascus, Assad warned that European nations seeking to send weapons to rebels will only export “terrorists” back to Europe. He also said the U.S., U.K. and France hadn’t substantiated their chemical weapons allegations.

“If Paris, London and Washington had a single piece of evidence for their claims, they would have produced it for the world public,” Assad told FAZ. An image on the Syrian president’s Facebook page showed an

FAZ cover and a photo of Assad sitting with a reporter from the newspaper.

Backed by Lebanon’s Shiite militia Hezbollah and aid from Iran and Russia, Assad’s forces have shifted the momentum in Syria’s civil war with an offensive against the rebels. He granted the interview after President

Barack Obama, accusing Assad of crossing a “red line” by using chemical weapons, last week ratcheted up U.S. support for the rebels with a decision to send them light arms.

Assad said using chemical weapons would be “illogical” if conventional weapons could be deployed -- and added that Syria has never confirmed or denied possessing chemical arms.

Instead, he accused rebel militia of using such weapons and said France and the U.K. had blocked a United Nations measure to investigate such a deployment in Aleppo.

Lies

“Everything that’s been said about the use of chemical weapons is a continuation of lies against Syria,” Assad told FAZ. “It’s the attempt to justify more military intervention.”

The Syrian leader also singled out the French and British governments, which spearheaded an end to the European Union’s weapons embargo last month, for wanting to ship weapons that he said will ultimately end up in the hands of “terrorists.”

“Terrorism means chaos here; chaos leads to poverty and poverty means that Europe will lose a significant market,” Assad said. “The second consequence would be the direct export of terrorism to Europe” as refugees leave the country.

Group of Eight leaders meeting today in Northern Ireland take up the Syria issue, as Obama sounds out Western allies on how far to go to intervene in Syria’s conflict.

While British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Francois Hollande support Western action in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin is backing Assad.

Russian Weapons

“Russia supplies arms to the legitimate government of Syria according to international law,” Putin said yesterday in London after meeting with Cameron. “We breach nothing. And we call on our partners to act the same way.”

The Syrian army is mounting an offensive to retake Aleppo, the nation’s commercial center and largest city.

The Syrian rebels’ Supreme Military Command, headed by Major General Salim Idris, has pleaded for heavy arms that go beyond the light weapons such as machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades that the
U.S. is preparing to furnish.

Assad told the German newspaper he has no doubt that rebels “will be completely eliminated from our territory,” though said he was still open for political talks.

In Saudi Arabia, the Cabinet called on Islamic nations today to stand against supplying Syria’s “illegitimate regime” with weapons, ammunition and individuals “so that it would not be able to continue its aggression,” according to the official Saudi Press Agency.

To contact the reporter on this story: Patrick Donahue in Berlin at pdonahue1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net