Real Unemployment - Real Economic Catastrophy

Why it's never a good idea to trust government unemployment numbers at first glance.  Read this excellent opinion by  Clyde Prestowitz, posted in today's Real Clear Politics: 

"So the headlines said jobs were up by about 80,000 last month and unemployment stayed at 8.2 percent. Not great, but not a disaster. At least things are not getting worse. Right?

That was how it looked to me at first glance. But I took a second glance — and quickly lost my appetite.

The headline unemployment numbers are the so-called U-3 government numbers, which count current jobs held, gained, and lost. Because of seasonal factors, they are subject to distortion that makes them more or less meaningless, as was the case in June.

A broader, more meaningful measure is U-6, which considers workers who have only recently stopped looking for work, as well as part-time workers who want full time work. U-6 unemployment is 14.9 percent and was up about 0.2 percent in June.

Until 1994, the U.S. government also kept track of long discouraged workers. Then the method of collecting and calculating unemployment data was changed, and workers who said they would like to work but were so discouraged that they hadn't been looking for work for a long time were defined out of the calculation. But the consulting firm Shadow Government Statistics still does that calculation, and it's a shocker: 22.9 percent.

That's the share of Americans who say they would like to work but for one reason or another can't find work; are working only part-time but want to work full-time; or have become so discouraged that they have given up looking for work. That means the full-time workforce ought to be a quarter larger than it is.

Can you imagine what that would do to U.S. growth, tax collections, savings, investment, and long-term retirement prospects? The fact is that the U.S. economy is operating far below its potential. Estimates of how far vary, but a good guess is about 5 to 8 percent of gross domestic product, or close to $1 trillion.

A trillion dollars is real money, and it's money America isn't making. Why is the big question."

The Web as Electronic Cocaine

You have to read this article - Is the Web Driving Us Mad.  Scary stuff.

Dr. Doom's Perfect Storm Begins

"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini says the "perfect storm" scenario he forecast for the global economy earlier this year is unfolding right now as growth slows in the U.S., Europe as well as China.

Getty Images

In May, Roubini predicted four elements - stalling growth in the U.S., debt troubles in Europe, a slowdown in emerging markets, particularly China, and military conflict in Iran - would come together to create a storm for the global economy in 2013.

“(The) 2013 perfect storm scenario I wrote on months ago is unfolding,” Roubini said on Twitter on Monday.

Read more at cnbc.com

Sphincter Factor Up

I give this whole situation in the Middle East a sphincter factor of about 9.5.

Just consider this; A potentially nuclear armed Iran is holding missile practice as the toughest sanctions yet go into effect.  The U.S. deploys more naval assets to the Persian Gulf, along with F-22 Raptorss and F-15c Eagles that remain in the region for an extended deployment.  The war in Syria continues, it's even getting worse, with Russia and China still supporting Syria in the Security Council.  Russia and China also want a hands-off approach to Iran.  Then there is Egypt, now run by the Muslim Brotherhood, whose founders helped establish al-Queda. 

Yeah, this looks real good.  Russia and China are clearly fed up with the United States invading countries and bombing others at its discretion - they want it stopped.  They want the U.S. out of the area, and the best way they can influence the situation is to side with U.S. enemies - Syria and Iran.  World Wars have started this way, for much less. 

What is going on here?