Friday, May 18, 2012

Iran's Last Chance to Make a Deal

The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency said Friday he will travel to Iran over the weekend on a previously unscheduled visit to try to resolve an impasse over access to Iranian nuclear documents and scientists.

The visit to Tehran by Yukiya Amano, director  general of the International Atomic Energy Agency is set for Sunday, three days before the start of a closely watched round of nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers,i including the United States.

There's only one way to look at this.  The UN and IAEA are desperately trying to get something from Iran so that Israel will not launch at attack against Iranian nuclear facilities.  It's also clear that Israel is in the final stages of preparation for such an assault, and will likely do so before the U.S. Presidential election.  Why?  Because President Obama will have no choice but to come to the aid of the Israelis to win re-election.  He needs the Jewish votes, especially in Florida.

In addition, the United States armed forces are now fully prepared to either support Israel in its assault, or to retaliate against Iran, if the Islamic Republic should lash out at U.S. forces in the Gulf in response to an Israeli attack.  There is now at least a squadron of F-22 Raptors based at the U.A.E. and the United States Navy has three Aircraft Carrier groups either in the Persian Gulf or lurking in the Arabian Sea nearby.

I know what you are thinking - the U.S. can not handle another war because of all the repeated deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan over the last ten years or so.  However, any assault on Iran will not involve U.S. Army or Marine Forces.  This will be strictly an Air Force and Naval Aviation/Surface fleet operation.  The ground troops can sit this one out, thank goodness.  The Navy needs practice.

However, if the IAEA can show any progress toward a nuclear settlement with Iran next week it may delay an attack.  If not, the war will begin sometime by late June or August - says this author.  And it could be the trigger that starts the next world war.

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