Decisions 2013

Despite the current debates over spending and gun control, I believe foreign policy will dominate President Obama's second term.

Most analysts today are saying there is at least a 50/50 chance that the United States will be involved in a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities alongside our Israeli allies.

But I am not so sure.  One only has to look at the current crisis in Africa.  The French have sent soldiers and aircraft to aide the democratically elected government in Mali fight insurgents let by Islamic Extremists and Al Qaeda.  And from all reports coming out of Washington, the administration is furious at the French for stepping in.  During the President's first term, Obama has done all he can to repair relations with the Muslim world.  He removed U.S. troops from Iraq and is in the process of an early retreat from Afghanistan despite a deteriorating security situation there.  Obama's State Department was doing its best to find an African solution to the crisis in Mali.  It wanted the African Union to step in and stop the slaughter.  But the French could wait no longer, and decided to act to protect its former African colony, possibly saving hundreds of thousands of lives in the process.  But the French put a big dent in U.S. desires NOT to make any crisis look like an East versus West confrontation.

You won't hear this from me very often, but good for the French.  They put lives and the threat from Islamic Extremists before politics, something this White House doesn't do very often.

That's why I doubt the White House will allow U.S. participation in any strike by Israel against Iran.  The U.S. will provide intelligence support that the Israelis probably don't need anyway, and may get drawn into the fight if Iran retaliates with strikes against U.S. 5th Fleet forces in the Gulf, or bases in Oman, Qatar or Bahrain.

And here's the real problem.  If Israel goes it alone, they will suffer casualties that could be avoided by U.S. participation.  Israel has a wonderfully trained and motivated Air Force.  But it will not survive a strike on Iran unscathed.  Iran has sophisticated surface to air defenses to protect its nuclear facilities, and a large Air Force.  While Israel will no doubt prevail, it will suffer casualties.

However, if U.S. naval and air forces were to take part in the initial raid, there would only be Iranian casualties.  The U.S. has the capability to strike Iranian facilities and air defenses without ever presenting a target.  Standoff and stealth technologies within the U.S. inventory makes any attack by Israel look foolhardy.   American B-2 Bombers, FA-22 Raptors and F-117 aircraft can deliver weapons without ever coming within range of Iranian forces.  It's air force could be wiped out while still on the ground.  An operation that could take days if carried out only by Israel could be completed in hours if carried out by the United Stares.

But does president Obama want another East versus West confrontation?  I doubt it.  He's more willing to accept a nuclear armed Iran, or a strike by Israel that doesn't involve U.S. help.  Too bad we can't come to the aid of one of our most valued allies in the world.